NAGPUR: Much against the expectation of a better crop, latest estimates by agencies like Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) show that cotton output in the country may be 25 lakh bales less than the previous year. The latest estimate received by Maharashtra Cotton Growers' Federation says the national production is expected to be at 350 lakh bales, federation chairman NP Hirani told TOI.

In Maharashtra, projections have been reduced to 60-65 lakh bales from over 75 lakh bales earlier. Last year, the national and state production stood at 375 lakh and 80 lakh bales respectively, said Hirani. Earlier, the national output was pegged at 380 lakh bales, it was reduced to 365 and finally 350 lakh bales, he said.

In this situation, farmers in Vidarbha stand to lose on one more front. Soyabean production has already touched a low, both in Vidarbha and Marathwada. It was expected that cotton production may be higher than previous year, but the predictions are changing. A glut in the orange belt has led to a slump in the rates of the fruit too. Farmers growing oranges were hoping to cover up the losses on cotton and soyabean through oranges.

However, national research agency Central Institute of Cotton Research (CICR) expects that the output may be at least equal to the last year if not more. "It is too early to have an exact estimate, but cotton harvest may be at least equal to previous year's level," said CICR director Dr Keshav Kranthi.

Hirani said that the cotton growers are at a loss. The market rates are barely Rs150 above the minimum support price (MSP), which does not leave a decent margin of profit in the farmers' hands, he said.

Both Vidarbha and Marathwada grow cotton. But the latter has faced a severe drought with expectations of the output being lower, due to which Vidarbha is expected to be the better off among the two. However, traders in Marathwada are offering around Rs4,200 a quintal, as against Rs4,150 in Vidarbha. This is because the quality is better in Marathwada this time, said Hirani.

The situation is slightly better than the last year in Yavatmal, known for suicides by cotton farmers. But as compared to the general average yield, even this year's harvest is too less. Farmers may reap 7 to 8 quintals a hectare, as compared to an average of 12 quintals. It's only first round of picking, though, and estimates can change, said a source in the state's agriculture department. Tur is the only hope but the size of the crop is not much.

Source timesofindia.indiatimes.com