PARIS: UNCTAD expects International Maritime Trade to expand at an average annual growth rate of 3.4% over the 2019–2024 period, driven in particular by growth in containerized, dry bulk and gas cargoes. However, uncertainty remains an overriding theme in the current maritime transport environment, with risks tilted to the downside.
World maritime trade lost momentum in 2018 as heightened uncertainty, escalating tariff tensions between the US and China and mounting concerns over other trade policy and political crosscurrents, notably a no-deal Brexit, sent waves through global markets, according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development’s (UNCTAD) Review of Maritime Transport 2019.
 
Volumes in the sector grew by only 2.7% last year, below the historical averages of 3% and 4.1% recorded in 2017, according to the report.
“The dip in maritime trade growth is a result of several trends including a weakening multilateral trading system and growing protectionism,” said UNCTAD Secretary-General Mukhisa Kituyi.
 
“It is a warning that national policies can have a negative impact on the maritime trade and development aspirations of all,” he added.
Buffeted by a global economic slowdown, in 2018, seaborne trade also navigated other difficult headwinds such as geopolitical tensions, while preparing for an expected surge in ship fuel costs arising from a new regulation requiring ships to cut their sulphur dioxide emissions.
 
Port traffic edges down
Reflecting slower maritime trade, growth in global port traffic also edged down, with container port traffic increasing by only 4.7% in 2018, from a 6.7% growth rate in 2017.
Similarly, container trade growth weakened. In 2018 volumes only increased by 2.6%, compared with 6% in 2017. This was matched with a sustained delivery of mega container ships, with container fleet supply capacity in 2018 increasing by 6% as compared to 4% in 2017. In an already overly supplied market, these developments further compressed freight rates in 2018.
 
Despite the setbacks, a milestone was reached, with total seaborne trade volumes amounting to 11 billion tonnes.
 
New currents
At the same time, profound structural trends that started more than a decade ago and have taken hold are slowly transforming the maritime transport landscape. The industry is transitioning away from patterns observed before the global financial and economic downturn hit the world economy.
 
“Today, the maritime sector is dealing with much more than market uncertainty and short-term cyclical factors,” said Shamika N. Sirimanne, Director of UNCTAD’s division on Technology and Logistics. “Other factors that are structural and existential, such as technological disruptions and climate change are at play and are redefining the sector.”
The report notes that the industry’s operating landscape appears to have shifted to a new paradigm contrasting with the reality of over a decade ago.
 
In the face of slower global economic and trade growth compared with the pre-2009 era of bullish growth rates, global maritime transport is increasingly now shaped by new demand and trade patterns, increasing regionalization of supply chains and rebalancing in China’s economy, as well as a larger role of technology and services in value chains and logistics.

Source: dst.news