After over 20,000 tonnes of imports in the last three years, silver imports nosedived in 2016 in line with gold. From January to July this year, imports fell over half and only 2,111 tonnes of silver was imported in India against 4,362 tonnes last year, lowest after 2012. Demand was low and huge import of silver by traders in past years was coming in the market as raiders and stockists were booking profit. That has also resulted in prices quoting at $1 per ounce discount in July. Now, however, discount has shrunk to 30 cents per ounce.

Chirag Thakkar, director, Amrapali Group, said that imports are quite low because “all the importers are sitting on heavy stock since past many months. Prices went up sharply this year. As a result, every importer has been struggling to clear the stocks and that is the reason even silver market is in disparity of around 30 cents per try oz”. He said that demand is still not picking up because current price levels are high, “but if prices stay at the same level, within a month we can see demand in silver”.

Silver has been a high beta commodity with prices rising and falling fast compared to gold.

Further, there's no fresh demand in the market at current price levels.

Sudheesh Nambiath, lead analyst (precious metals demand), South Asia & UAE, GFMS Thomson Reuters, explains that Indian silver imports have slumped this year largely due to a supply overhang in the domestic market, attributed to unsold inventories across the value chain and the high level of above the ground stocks at secured vaults and in private hands. He believes that the trend will continue. “We expect full-year total imports to be close to 3,500 tonnes in 2016 (which will be lowest after 2012), a drop over 44 per cent on 2015 levels. This follows a first half total of just 2,027 tonnes. In our view, we would need to see the price back below $18 an ounce for the pent-up demand to be unleashed.”

Interestingly, according to the GFMS data, in the last three decades, India has imported approximately 87,000 tonnes of silver. And the three decade average price of silver was Rs 16,447 per kg, which is two-third of the current price level. Thus, “it shouldn’t surprise when investors and consumers liquidate silver holdings at current prices or indeed exchange it against new jewellery”.

In such a scenario, only industrial demand can support the market and such demand is still quite low in India.

Globally, over half of silver is used for industrial purposes, while in India only 20 per cent is estimated to be going for industrial use.

Sources :business-standard.com