Cotton growers in Gujarat and Maharashtra, two major growing states in India, are gearing up to bring more area under it with the monsoon reaching the state. The delay in the arrival of monsoon has affected the sowing of paddy and groundnut in Gujarat; farmers are diverting that area to cotton. In some other states, the area earmarked for pulses is also being diverted to cotton, a short-cycle crop.

Although Maharashtra is lagging behind Gujarat in cotton sowing, the sowing can be done till the end of this month. To meet their targets, farmers are counting on revival of the monsoon as predicted by the Met department.

Among the reasons that has driven farmers to increase cotton acreage is the fact that they had received good returns from the crop last year.

While cotton sowing is in full swing in Madhya Pradesh, the planting is over in Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab, where cotton acreage is up 10 per cent. The farmers in these states also diverted from guar and paddy to cotton, which needs less irrigation.

According to Bhagwan Bansal, president of Punjab Ginning Mills Association, the north-western states are likely to produce about 60 million bales, compared to 41 million bales last year.

If the monsoon remains consistent, then there could be a 8-10 per cent increase in cotton acreage across India and this might lead to a proportional increase in arrivals, said Anand Popat, secretary, Saurashtra Ginning Mills Association. India has received 38 million bales of cotton from the kharif 2013-14 crop. Another seven to eight million might be added in the remaining period (the cotton season runs from October to September). We can expect an increase in the coming season.

Prerana Desai, head of research at Kotak Commodities, says: “The historical trend of El Niño (a weather phenomenon that reduces monsoon rains) reflects that most of the crops were impacted due to poor monsoons in the years 2003-04, 2004-05 and 2008-09, but cotton was not affected.” She added that area under cotton was registering an increase in all cotton-growing states and even if rains picked pace in the next two weeks, cotton crop would be safe.

The arrivals for the kharif 2014-15 might be delayed as cotton-sowing has been deferred. “We expect the arrivals to gain momentum in the month of November,” said Arun Dalal, an Ahmedabad-based cotton exporter.

According to him, the international price of cotton is likely to be subdued due to an increase in production this year. The domestic price will be determined only if the supplies are firm. Going by current trends, cotton production is likely to be higher this year; however, there needs to be minimum amount of rainfall for this to happen.

Source; - business-standard.com